Friday, October 31, 2003

‘Well, You Try To Reconstruct Iraq,’ Says U.S. Defensive Dept.

War

As always, the Onion has it straight. 


Posted by Buckethead on 10/31/03 at 08:36 PM
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New, incredible web toy

Entertainment

This is cool beyond words.  If you’re a geek, and I know you are or you wouldn’t be here.

This website allows you to create things like this:

image


Posted by Buckethead on 10/31/03 at 07:03 PM
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Life stops dead when the delegates are in town

Unmitigated Gall

I live north of Boston, and commute to the city every day to work. So imagine my consternation when I find that North Station, the only train station I can get to from where I live, will almost certainly be closing for the duration of the Democratic Party convention in July of 2004. Traffic will be re-routed as well, but that’s an everyday thing around here.

I’m glad that the city of Boston got the convention, as it’s quite the moneymaker. But can’t they figure out a better way to accommodate thousands of commuters than to shut down their only conduit in and out of the city? Oh, I COULD take a bus, but I’m already up at 5:30 to commute as it is.  I realize it’s not the fault of the Democrats, but since I can’t vote against the people who did this in Boston elections…


Posted by Johno on 10/31/03 at 06:09 PM
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On discourse

Partisan Politics

In the comments to a post by Ross below, I noted that the level of discourse around here is rising sharply with the addition of him and GeekLethal to our numbers. I am delighted that is the case.

On the topic of discourse, I came across a reminder by Daniel Drezner today of this oxblog post by Josh Chafetz about the verbal petards launched between left and right. Chafetz asks for a little civility, please, when talking across the aisle. His particular instance is taken from Matthew Yglesias’ comments, in which his readers opine that there is no such thing as an intelligent conservative.

Oh, please. I know this kind of thing is common as dirt, and that it happens on both sides of the debate (Instapundit, Li’l Green Footballs, I’m talking to you), but just because everyone does it doesn’t make it any less crass or lazy. Is it really such a stretch to assume that people who disagree with you have actually thought through what they believe? To assume otherwise is disingenous, yet it happens all the time, and it makes me sad and tired.


Posted by Johno on 10/31/03 at 05:04 PM
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As Simple As Possible, But No Simpler

War

I’m not going to fisk, but I’m going to take issue with a number of points you raise.  Your general tone is “path of righteousness”. 

We are having an effect on certain terrorists, but new recruits are banging on their doors, and overall I suspect terrorism is largely unabated.  I think that there just aren’t all that many people in the world willing to commit suicide for their beliefs.  There are some, but not that many.  The rarity of events lik 9/11 is statistical evidence for this.

America’s Army is NOT exterminating terrorists at the moment.  They are engaged in a low-intensity battle against resistance forces, after having exhausted the regular forces invading a teeny-tiny country.  Yes, there are some terrorists in the mix, and we hear about the car bombs and so forth.  99% of the conflicts with American forces are run-of-the-mill insurgents.  You can’t call them all terrorists.  Some of them are pissed-off natives who don’t want the US in their country.  Some of them are Baathists.  It’s a mixture. 

The bottom line is that most of the strength of the military is engaged in nation-building at the moment.  By most reports I’ve read, resources have generally been shifted away from pursuit of terrorism, and towards political change in Iraq.

This is single-issue, silver-bullet foreign policy.  A very great number of eggs are in a single basket.  There are so many eggs in the basket that, yes, in the absence of other fiscal responsibility, there are serious threats to the economic stability of the country.

Nobody thinks the 7% growth rate is anything more than a single exceptional quarter.  Most predictions go for around a 4.5% quarter next time, which is still very good, but more in line with history.

Do you not see that the debate has everything with what the US may _legitimately_ do in the world?  If a nuclear bomb had detonated in NY, and was traced to Saddam Hussein, the entire world would have been behind the US in removing him.  They probably would have lead the way.

This is instead a forceful war of political change...cynical and expensive.  It is by no means a “war of revenge”.  There is no direct connection between Hussein and 9/11.  Are you arguing that you believe there to be a solid connection?  One that was known BEFORE the war was initiated?  You are certainly willing to trade on the idea, to make your political points.  Do you or do you not believe it?  What evidence do you have?  You have no business using it as an underpinning to debate otherwise.

So what does $300 Billion buy us?  Quite a lot.  Our yearly medicare budget is around $250 Billion.  The interest on the national debt is around $175 Billion (due to rise dramatically).  $300 Billion is a rather incredible amount of money!  Of course, prior to the war, Mitch Daniels (long since fired as White House budget director) explained that the war would cost around $50 Billion.

It is simple, and deceitful, to throw round numbers like “1% of GDP”.  The government doesn’t have anywhere near a large percentage of GDP to work with; the federal budget is around 25% of GDP, I think.

With the huge deficits Bush has created just around the corner. we will be spending, on interest, enough money to do an Iraq every year in short order. 

There are so many absolutes in what you write.  “Terrorists are created not by our actions, but by the failure of their societies”.  So our actions have no effect?  I think they do.  I think our actions matter greatly.  I think Bush’s snubbing of the UN has had an effect.  His abandonment of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process has had an effect.  The trashing of Kyoto has had an effect (we can argue all day long about whether it would work or not, but symbolically it was a tremendous blow to multilateralism).

I’ll retract the NASCAR remark, with regards to YOU.  I stand by it as far as this Administration goes.  And I stand by it for most people I’ve met in favor of the war.  Their thinking hasn’t gone much past, “punch me, and get punched”.

“tit-for-tat” is one of the winningest strategies for the Prisoner’s Dilemma, a well-studied game theory example.  I gather, in your world, that there need be no foreign policy more sophisticated than tit-for-tat.  tit-for-tat is a conservative position that attempts to engender cooperation, rewarding cooperation where it exists, and punishing it where it does not.  There are strategies that can beat it, but it’s pretty good all around.

We aren’t playing tit-for-tat, because we just took the first punch.  We chose the path of non-cooperation, of unilateralism.

Finally, you state that “It is sadly common for those who are protected to resent those who do the bloody work of protecting.”

Do you believe that you are somehow identifying with more firmly, and are showing more solidarity with our armed forces?  I do not recall you have been on any secret missions to Iraq. 

Men with guns, you can’t handle the truth, and all of that.  You are not on the wall with a gun, and neither am I.  There are men (and women) doing that.  Do you imply that those who disagree with Bush policy resent our soldiers, who protect us, and who follow orders?


Posted by Ross on 10/31/03 at 02:21 AM
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Thursday, October 30, 2003

Dumbass Playgrounds

War

Terrorists do care about US strategy and actions.  Because right now, we are hunting them down.  They are on the run, hiding in caves, and fearful that they will be ratted out.  They are fearful that a group of US Special Forces like the ones described in GeekLethal’s first post will be knocking on the door of their hideout.  The only places where terrorist attacks have happened in the wake of 9/11 are those places where we do not have troops – like Saudi Arabia, where we (hopefully temporarily) left, or Indonesia, or Israel.  The most powerful military force in world history is devoted to exterminating terrorists.  I think that this fact has made an impact on their thinking, and on their plans.

It will also have an effect on those who might have joined them in more salubrious times.  When the uniform result of an attack on America is death and destruction not for America but for the terrorists, all but the most zealous will think twice.  And even the most zealous might reconsider their means when 99% of all attempts result in abject failure.  The martyr must not merely die for his faith, but he must inflict damage in the process.  Continued failure will result in demoralization.

During the recent Gulf War, even Iraqi military strategy assumed the basic goodness and restraint of American forces.  They hid behind civilians, knowing that we would not willingly harm civilians.  The Iraqi people have witnessed that, and our efforts to rebuild their nation – not merely the damage from our brief bombing campaign, but from decades of neglect.  If we are successful in remaking Iraq into a democratic nation – which will require the willing cooperation of the Iraqis, the Islamic world will notice.  And the fact of a successful, free, prosperous Arab nation will put immense pressure on other authoritarian and despotic governments.

The proper question to ask is, “does America give a shit what the rest of the world thinks?” We were attacked; and we are, with the assistance of many other nations taking action we see fit to remove the threat.  This is a basic right of national sovereignty.  While we have taken steps to get the approval of others, we do not require it, any more than France needed UN approval to invade the Ivory Coast.

The cost of our invasion will likely exceed $300 billion dollars.  That is less than one year’s expenditure on our military.  It is less than three percent of our gross national product for one year.  The occupation and eventual departure from Iraq will not bankrupt us, and I cannot conceive of any possible domino effect that would lead from that occupation to any kind of decline.  “We didn’t spend the money on drugs for rich old people, Revolution in the streets!” This is, well, extremely unlikely at best. 


Posted by Buckethead on 10/30/03 at 11:11 PM
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A Short Trip to Mars

War

Last month I spent a few days in the company of warriors.  It was like going to a different planet compared to my usual day to day existence at a liberal, snoot-ay private college. 

A filmmaker and I shot several training exercises conducted by special operations forces.  This training was largely built around urban maneuver and combat; some exercises were held at night, others in broad daylight; some with live ammo, others with a 9mm paintball-type submunition.  Many of the operators we spoke to were combat veterans and the rest are soon to be. 

Here’s a short list of what I learned.  I think it worthwhile to share these observations, particularly with Bad Guys.  If you are a Bad Guy, please take these to heart and save us all some trouble in the future:


Posted by on 10/30/03 at 08:04 PM
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The Economy-- Damn!

Wow. Just wow.

U.S. economic growth surged in the third quarter of 2003 to the fastest pace in nearly two decades, the government said Thursday, in a report that was much stronger than most economists expected.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, grew at a 7.2 percent annual rate in the quarter after growing at a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported. Economists, on average, expected GDP growth of 6 percent, according to Briefing.com.

Hey, that’s great news.

Now, could I see a little of that magic, please?


Posted by Johno on 10/30/03 at 05:16 PM
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Hearts And Minds

War

This Washington Post Editorial is very sobering.  A key quote:

“It’s war because our undefeated enemies say it is and behave accordingly.

In that stubborn resistance lies a fundamental truth that seems too often to have eluded American political leaders since World War II: It’s not the winner who typically decides when victory in a war has been achieved. It’s the loser. ”

If that is true, and it does seem so to me, then the hearts and minds of everyday Iraqis are really the key to the mission.  It also places in distinctly sharper relief the Administration’s predictions before the war that Americans would be welcomed as liberators, and that the population would fall over themselves to greet the incoming troops. 

That has happened in small ways, but the overall situation is poor, and the attacks are accelerating.  Riverbend gives us a view from one Iraqi citizen; are we winning her heart and mind?  How do we convince the people shooting at the troops, recruiting “resistance fighters”, that the war simply doesn’t need to go on?

It will go on as long as there are people willing to fight and die against perceived occupation.  When it comes to the Arab world, it seems that the supply of such people is almost limitless...and with population growth there, as fast as they can be killed (to put it bluntly), they are being replaced. 

Is war and aggression truly the best path?  Is there another way?


Posted by Ross on 10/30/03 at 04:43 PM
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Economy gets a fire lit under its tushie

Filthy Lucre

AP is reporting that in the third quarter, economic growth has jumped up to a 7.2% annual rate, more than double the not particularly anemic 3.3% growth rate of the previous quarter.  This is the strongest single quarter gain since 1984.

The economy’s recovery from the 2001 recession has resembled the side of a jagged cliff; a quarter of strength often has been followed by a quarter of weakness. But analysts are saying that pattern could be broken, considering increasing signs the economy finally has shaken its lethargy and is perking up.

Near rock-bottom short-term interest rates, along with President Bush’s third round of tax cuts, have helped the economy shift into a higher gear during the summer, economists say. The next challenge is making sure the rebound is self-sustaining.

Job creation surged to a net increase of 57,000 in September, the first increase in eight months - though job creation is generally a lagging indicator of recovery.  The article goes on to list improvements in other economic indicators - drops in unemployment claims, increases in wages and benefits, consumer spending, and business capital spending. 

As for the government’s role:

Federal government spending, which grew at a 1.4 percent rate, was only a minor contributor to GDP in the third quarter. Spending on national defense was flat. But in the second quarter, military spending on the Iraq war - which grew at a whopping 45.8 percent rate - helped to catapult economic growth.

The evidence suggests that businesses are still somewhat gunshy, and unwilling to trust in the economy’s rebound just yet.  But if, as economists predict, that the next quarter will show at least 4% growth, I think that we’ve turned the corner on the most recent cyclical recession.

Of course, one result of a growing economy will be the reduction in deficits as government tax revenue increases.  If the typical pattern holds, we will enter a period of economic growth that will last another decade before the next recession.  If this growth period is even half as potent as the last one, we should see deficits disappearing again so long as the increases in federal spending stays not to far ahead of inflation.

Of course, it would be better to see a reduction in federal spending.  I have played with the budget simulator that Ross linked recently, too - and balancing the budget is simple.  As long as you have your priorities straight.  I balanced the budget by increasing defense spending and simply halting increases in social spending, while eliminating the department of education and farm subsidies.

And, in answer to one of Ross’ claims in the previous post, what are you smoking?  Defense spending, including the Iraq War and Veteran’s Benefits, is $547.61 billion.  Spending for social welfare (Education, Health, Medicare, Social Welfare, and Social Security) is $1.27 trillion.  That’s almost one and a half times more for welfare boondoggles, not an order of magnitude less. 


Posted by Buckethead on 10/30/03 at 04:17 PM
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The Death Of Journalism

Partisan Politics

According to Bill Moyers, it may be at hand.  I haven’t seen much lately that leads me to believe otherwise.  There are still a few signs of life out there, where ethics haven’t been bent and folded enough times to disappear entirely...It’s a sobering interview.

Everything involving television is for sale.  I wonder how long even NPR can last; its ad content has slowly been creeping upwards too.

It occurs to me that I have heard entirely too many times that we “shouldn’t be spending public money on NPR”.  Here’s the thing, for those of you on the right.  There are things that you think government should spend money, and there are things that I think government should spend money on.  On your side, we’ve got big guns and a military, invasions of other countries, huge jails for mostly black people who can’t afford Rush Limbaugh’s lawyers, corporate welfare, tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, and government funding of religions.  I think it’s worth noting that we’re actually spending money on all that stuff. 

On my side there’s an R+D budget, health care, serious funding for educational institutions, we keep our progressive taxation system progressive, taxes can certainly go higher, and we keep important programs like NPR and NASA and yes, even the NEA. 

Here’s the thing: The right’s pet expenditures are an order of magnitude higher than the left’s. The old canard about “free-spending liberals” just doesn’t hold water any more.  We all know exactly who the free spenders are now.  So the next time you want to knock off the NEA, maybe I get to pick one out of your list. 

You too can play amusing budget games!  Try this budget simulator.  I pretty much balanced the budget on the first try.  It’s not even hard to do.  You just have to have your priorities straight...and get rid of the stupid tax cut that got us into this deficit mess in the first place.  Plus nuke agricultural subsidies.  I can’t for the life of me figure out why a single mom struggling to make ends meet in the inner city should be forced to give part of her income to Archer Daniels Midland.

Old budget was $3274.734 billion
($2292.807 billion in spending, $981.927 billion in tax expenditures and cuts).

New budget is $2914.09 billion

($2253.16 billion in spending, $660.93 billion in tax expenditures and cuts).

You have cut the deficit by $360.64 billion.

Your new deficit is $-3.63 billion.


Posted by Ross on 10/30/03 at 07:44 AM
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Wednesday, October 29, 2003

Outrageous Gall

Music Wonkery

It’s Wednesday! Time for music blogging!

My blogcritics colleague Rodney Welch has found this screedly little list of 100 albums that everyone must purge from their collections immediately. I can’t say as that I agree with many of the choices, but it’s a well-argued and provocative piece nonetheless.

I mean, I can see why The Replacement’s “Tim” is on the list, when “Let it Be” is much better, and why Tom Waits’ “The Mule Variations” is called a remake of the far better “Swordfishtrombones” and “Rain Dogs,” but… “Giant Steps”? “Blood Sugar Sex Magic”? “Combat Rock”? “The Soft Bulletin”? “Bitches Brew”? “Daydream fucking Nation?” “Nothing’s Shocking”?

Please.

Shoots straight past “the emperor has no clothes” to reveal a buncha half-Neanderthal Philistines pissed off that they don’t get it. Cry me a river and go buy the new Cave-In record, ok?


Posted by Johno on 10/29/03 at 08:33 PM
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Halloween Extravaganza

Just So You Know

Blogcritics is hosting a Halloween blog blowout this week-- I suggest you go check it out, not least because I’m a member in good standing of that august body.


Posted by Johno on 10/29/03 at 07:47 PM
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NASA Gets with the times. Which times? 1966.

That Buck Rogers Stuff

Gregg Easterbrook regains his footing after a disastrous couple weeks (ontology, rectocranial disease) with this post on NASA’s latest genius plan: build a space plane!

NASA last wanted to build a space plane in the 1960s, and abandoned the project when ICBMs rendered negligible their strategic worth. It’s well documented that podlike vehicles do better upon reentry than winged vehicles, and at this point the spaceplane is nothing but a decades-old dream. Furthermore, a space plane would do nothing to NASA’s advantage-- it would still be expensive, dangerous, of limited use, and packed with Senate pork. From braindrizzles like this it’s clear that NASA is not just useless, but actually harmful to the advance of engineering, science, and space exploration in the United States.

And these are the dudes in charge of space. /*covers face with hands

I would encourage anyone with a passing interest in space and space policy to pick up the most recent edition of the Atlantic, which features William Langeweische’s killer cover story on the Columbia disaster and NASA’s bumbling, fumbling, and institutional dead weight. Easterbrook covers the main point on Easterblogg so I won’t belabor them here; I will only say that that X-Prize better be won, and soon.

Private Space Exploration Now!

[wik] Buckethead has kindly reminded me that he covered this NASA spaceplane garbage a while back.

[also wik] And don’t forget to choose “That Buck Rogers Stuff” from the categories list at left for some of the darned-tootenist, bestest, pithiest, and altogether smartestest space bloviation anywhere!


Posted by Johno on 10/29/03 at 04:47 PM
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Sacred Cowlike America

Crazy Foreigners

A little fodder:

  • Private Health Care Through Your Employer.  There’s nuthin’ beddah.  God intended it to be this way.  Why, the personal care of unsurpassed excellence we all get is all that stands between us and hell.
  • Guns are Great.  If I can’t shoot it, I can’t control it. 
  • American Democracy Is The Only Real Democracy.  You can just shut the hell up if you think anything else! 
  • The Founding Fathers BLAH BLah Blah blah blah.  They knew everything.  They even know about the magazines in the back of your closet, they invented light bulbs and boxed lunches, and they don’t approve of what we’re doing.  No sir they don’t.  Follow the recipe.
  • Rich People Are Because They Are Just Plain Better People.  Luck, hereditary factors, hundreds of years of bia and bullshit, have nothing to do with it.  Please ignore the current round of cheatin’ and lyin’ on Wall Street.  Nothing to see here.  These are not the crooks you are looking for.  Move along.
  • Market Uber Alles!  All human function can be controlled by markets.  All human functions must be controlled by markets.  If all human bodily functions were controlled by markets, our toilets would be 3.7% more efficient.  This would lead to world peace. 

Ah.  I feel so much better!  Why do I still like it here so much?  I don’t know!  Maybe it’s the women.  Maybe it’s the fact that with a little bending and twisting, this country could be so truly excellent.  I have a pipe wrench around here somewhere.


Posted by Ross on 10/29/03 at 03:04 AM
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